Market Insights

Everything we do is underpinned by proprietary analytical tools and methodologies – then battletested by an in-house team of research analysts and real estate capital market experts. We believe that this combination provides Amherst Capital with an information advantage and differentiated perspective into the fundamentals driving performance. 

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  • 2021 Market Outlook – U.S. Real Estate

    Market Update – January 2021
    This paper examines real estate market fundamentals and key themes to watch in 2021.

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  • Amherst Market Commentary – COVID-19 Relief Helps Some, Leaves Over Half of Households Vulnerable

    Market Update - May 2020

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  • Amherst Market Commentary - Coronavirus: Don't Forget America's 43.8 Million Renters

    Market Update - March 2020

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  • 2020 Market Outlook – U.S. Real Estate

    Market Update – December 2019
    This paper examines real estate market fundamentals and key themes to watch in 2020.

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  • U.S. commercial real estate still undervalued compared with U.S. stocks

    Institutional Real Estate, Inc. – May 2019
    Recently, Jonathan A. Schein, managing director of global business development at Institutional Real Estate, Inc., spoke with Abbe Franchot Borok, head of originations at Amherst Capital Management, the commercial real estate lending business of Amherst. The following is an excerpt of that conversation.

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  • 2019 Market Outlook – U.S. Real Estate

    Market Update – December 2018
    This paper examines real estate market fundamentals and key themes to watch in 2019.

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  • Stabilized top tier office most exposed to a potential slowdown in Manhattan

    Commentary – October 2018
      o Manhattan and surrounding New York City metro employment is growing and office absorption has been positive – but at a weaker pace than a few years back
      o Shifting trends in co-working are reducing office space needed per employee and potentially increasing risk to the market
      o Significant supply on the horizon with the addition of Hudson Yards and other projects may exceed demand
      o Rents are showing signs of recent declines, and concessions are increasing
      o With tight cap rates, and less steady demand, equity investments in stabilized top tier office is exposed to a potential slowdown

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  • Home prices growing slowly in high tax East Coast cities - is tax reform to blame?

    Commentary – July 2018
      o The 2018 Tax Reform Act passed in Dec 2017 included a cap on the State and Local Income Tax (SALT) deduction of $10k while raising the standard deduction.
      o This SALT deduction limit marginally disincentives buying-versus-renting for high-priced homes in areas with high taxes as homeowners are less likely to benefit from deducting local property taxes.

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  • National single-family home prices maintain solid growth: Las Vegas is heating up, while Dallas is cooling down

    Commentary – June 2018
      o US housing market grew at a solid 5.3% Y-o-Y in April 2018 according to Amherst Home Price Index.
      o Overall, US single family price growth has significantly lagged the post-crisis recoveries witnessed in equities and commercial real estate. The pace of new single family housing construction remains anemic by historical norms even as we expect greater demand from more millennials entering family formation ages in the coming years. We remain optimistic on the US home price growth for the foreseeable future.

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  • Rising rates unlikely to be the death knell for commercial real estate growth

    Commentary – May 2018
      o Despite a steadily growing economy, commercial real estate (“CRE”) investors cannot ignore rising interest rates and their effect on CRE
      o Higher interest rates not only increase borrowing costs and return hurdles, but could potentially also reduce property values
      o Historically however, rising rate environments have coincided with higher economic growth and less restrictive lending conditions and therefore higher CRE prices
      o In addition, capitalization rate (“cap-rate”) spreads have room to compress in some markets, and net-operating income (“NOI”) growth can offset the effects of rising cap- rates on CRE prices
      o Long-term leased, stabilized property valuations are most exposed to rising rates, particularly in expensive regions
      o Rising rates may also slow equity returns, but we believe senior debt should be protected as long as steady growth continues concurrently. In particular, senior debt backed by transitional properties may hold up better in a rising rent and rate environment
      o While higher rates may slow returns, particularly for CRE equity investors, a change in underlying market fundamentals would be a greater concern for the overall market

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1. Provided through a consulting agreement with Amherst Capital

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